If you cannot convert a price into an implied probability in your head, you are not betting, you are guessing with extra steps. This takes ten minutes to learn and it changes how every market on the board looks.
Decimal odds and implied probability
Indian sportsbooks mostly display decimal odds. Divide 1 by the decimal price and you have the implied probability. A price of 2.00 implies 50 percent. A price of 4.00 implies 25 percent. That is the entire conversion.
| Decimal odds | Implied probability | Return on ₹1,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 66.7% | ₹1,500 |
| 1.90 | 52.6% | ₹1,900 |
| 2.00 | 50.0% | ₹2,000 |
| 3.00 | 33.3% | ₹3,000 |
| 5.00 | 20.0% | ₹5,000 |
| 10.00 | 10.0% | ₹10,000 |
The margin, and how to see it
Add the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market. A fair market sums to 100 percent. A real one sums to more, and the excess is the bookmaker margin. In a two-way cricket market priced 1.90 and 1.90, the implied probabilities are 52.6 each, summing to 105.2 percent: a 5.2 percent margin. That number is your real cost of betting, and comparing it across books is the most useful thing you can do.
Value, defined properly
A value bet is one where your estimated probability exceeds the implied probability of the price. If you think a team wins 60 percent of the time and the price implies 50, that is value whether or not the bet wins. If you think they win 60 percent and the price implies 65, backing them is a bad bet even when they win. Results do not tell you whether a bet was correct; only the process does.
Fractional and American formats
Fractional odds (5/2) mean profit relative to stake: 5/2 pays 5 profit for every 2 staked, equivalent to 3.50 decimal. American odds use +250 for the same thing and -150 for odds-on prices. Indian books rarely default to either, but you will meet them on international sites.
Put it into practice
Take any cricket match, calculate the margin on the match winner market at three books, and note which is cheapest. Repeat for a week. Now you know where to bet, and you have not risked a rupee to learn it.
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Frequently asked questions
How do I convert decimal odds to probability?
Divide 1 by the decimal price. A price of 2.50 implies 40 percent, because 1 divided by 2.50 is 0.40.
What is the bookmaker margin?
The amount by which the implied probabilities of all outcomes exceed 100 percent. Two sides priced at 1.90 each imply 105.2 percent in total, which is a 5.2 percent margin.
What is a value bet?
A bet where your estimated probability is higher than the probability implied by the price. Whether it wins is irrelevant to whether it was a good bet.